Why Texas did not turn blue
The 2020 U.S. presidential elections have been a unique kind of elections that we have never witnessed in American history. Listening to various political analysts, they assert that this year’s elections have been characterized by high voter turnout across various regions, race, gender and ethnicity. Millions of citizens came out to vote as a way of expressing their democratic and constitutional right. What intrigues me is the facts or reasons behind the large voter turnout from the various state. It could be that Democrats were overwhelmed with the current Trump’s administration and they wanted to throw him out of government, or maybe, on the other hand, the Republicans were also on their toes to ensure that they maintain their political status quo. Texas was a key battlefield during this year’s elections, with many predicting that it was going to be a blue state. For a very long time, democrats have been discussing Texas turning blue. They have been pointing out it was likely to become a democratic state because of its diversified and fast-growing population [11]. Everything seemed to be growing in Texas and the large voter turnout this time around illuminated some glimpse of hope to the democrats that they would turn Texas blue in a presidential election for the first time since 1976 [10]. A countless number of people has been predicting democrat’s victory in Texas, and seemingly, the same mistake was made this time again [1]. Texas remained a red state as it has always been.
Considering the voting patterns, generally, it has remained a red state, right from its congress elections to the presidency. In fact, it is considered the main blue state and Henry Cuellar, a moderate democrat in south Texas argues that once Texas is transformed into a blue state, it will become so hard for any republican candidate to establish a coalition that can run the whole nation [11]. It is quite impossible, especially based on the nature of the politics we witness in the states. His statements can help us conclude that Texas people have always focused their votes on Republican and seemingly they are not willing to drop that amidst the efforts being put by the Democrats to change their voting and election pattern. Texas was made a state in 1845 and began to participate in elections in 1848. From 1872 to 1976, it was democratic in most of its voting. But from 1980, its voting pattern took a different direction, and it has continued to side with the Republicans ever since. The nature of voting in Texas, specifically if you are a democrat often seems pointless for close to over thirty years now [11]. The local politics and political representatives in the region are less predictable, and most people only remain motivated to engage in the voting process. It is also based on this election and voting trend that has seen 2020’s elections bringing another disappointment for Texas Democrats, who failed to achieve the great expectation and hope of victory they had set [12].
Many people thought that this voting trend could change as early as 2014, then 2016 and 2018 and all these election periods have been disappointing to the Texas Democrats [12]. They predicted that 2020 would become their year to win because of the high records of voter turnout [8]. However, still, the 2020 elections gave the republicans their usual dominance in Texas, grabbing victory in statewide offices and legislative chambers [12]. On the other hand, the Texas democrats considered it a symbolic victory, highlighting the gradual steps the state is taking to change their way of voting.
On Election Day, the democrats were hopeful knowing that they would win in Texas. They believed that Texas people had changed their political minds. Another factor that would bring this change was the demographic transformation in Texas [13]. The state has 38 electoral votes and democrats expected that Joe Biden would win these electoral votes, but it did not happen. The 2016 elections saw Trump winning in Texas by more than 800,000 votes. This means that for Biden to win in the recently ended elections, he had to take advantage of the increase in population in the biggest cities as well as the change in suburbs politics to help him erase Trump’s tremendous political advantages in the rural areas [14, 13]. However, Biden did not get adequate votes to carry Texas, but his performance was ranked well than that of Hillary in 2016.
Biden won various counties in Texas State, and some of the four big blue counties are Harris, Bexar, Dallas, and Travis counties are known to be for democrats. Biden achieved an increase in democratic votes from 620, 362 votes in 2016 to 912, 084 votes in 2020 [13]. Biden won in various urban counties while Trump’s main victory was seen in the suburban and rural counties [17]. Biden won in 4 counties by 912, 084 votes. They include Dallas, Travis, Harris, and Bexar. He also won other 28 border counties such as Hildago, El Paso, Cameron [13]. Here he garnered 152, 502 votes. On the other hand, Trump won in six counties considered to be fast-changing suburbs, where he won by 2, 515 votes. These counties include Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Williamson, Hays, and Fort Bend. His solid red territories were 216 counties, where he won by 1.7 million votes [6]. Some of the counties include Parker, Smith, and Montgomery [13]. Joe Biden needed to perform better in the swing suburbs and cities because the rest of the state, excluding the border areas, is Trump’s territories [15]. The biggest surprise was experienced in the 28 counties or near the border and also in South Texas [3]. It has always been a democratic area, but Biden was not successful there as compared to Clinton during the 2016 elections. However, these counties were lowlily populated [16]. Therefore, the fact is that if Joe Biden was to be a victor in Texas, he was to expand his popularity in the more populous suburbs and cities so that he could gather many votes [13].
The voting wave still turned against the democrats, and it was based on various reasons. Some of these are based on policy issues, immigration issues, the coronavirus, and even though the manner that both parties carried out their elections. Taking the case of South Texas and many other counties, people felt the democrats had neglected them for a very long time, and they did not focus on solving their societal issues [3]. The presence of the republicans was felt there, giving them a change of mind to vote for the republican. Another reason why Texas remained red was based on the campaign strategy used. As the Republicans were busy knocking at every door selling their policies, the democrats did not knock at the doors to let citizens know why they should vote for Biden [5]. Jessica Cisneros, one of the democratic primary candidates, when interviewed, she says that individuals have been voting for democrats in South Texas and probably the feeling of being neglected prompted most people to try and vote for the republican party and see if there would be changes [4].
Additionally, the Latinos were fed up with the cases they were hearing about bribery and corruption done by some local leaders from the Democratic Party. The Latinos of Hispanics’ focus was on hearing who would want to solve their policy issues and provide better jobs for the people down in the Rio Grande Valley. To them, they saw republican as the party that was bothered and wanted to address their issues [3, 4]. Majority of people living in the border have suffered greatly from high unemployment rates. During this election, they wanted to vote for republicans and gauge whether their problems would be solved [5].
In the urban regions where Biden gathered some victory over Trump, there is an upcoming new group known as the urban democrats who seem to be embracing progressive policies such as those in New York [7]. This group was at the forefront of encouraging citizens to vote for Joe Biden. Also, Biden’s a third of the Texas votes came from African-Americans and older votes. This was because Joe Biden and the entire Democratic Party fought for the black lives matter movement in the country [7].
With the many theories put forth, with some arguing that Texas will turn blue, Texas will turn purple and that it is a nonvoting state, all these never came true because Texas remained Texas by maintaining its status quo. Well, it seems that it will not be an easy thing for the democrats to change the mind of Texas people who have always voted for Republican [9]. The 2020 presidential election in Texas was anticipated with different thoughts. As Biden started leading in vote counts, we knew that maybe Biden was to take over Texas, but when the voting counting took a drastic turn, it was all evident that once again Texas would retain its red-state [2]. I can, therefore say that Texas is not turning blue any time soon.