Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya, East Africa
Our study established some issues related to possible changes in the drought situation over Kenya. Firstly, the study pointed out that drought duration would experience an increase in moderate drought incidences with fewer occurrences of extreme events across possible scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and 8.5). Examination of projected changes in drought frequency and severity depicts possible manifestation of severe to extreme drought occurrences that are expected to intensify during 2071-2100. Overall projections show that more wet scenarios, with fewer drought cases expected to occur during mid and towards the end of the projection period. The resultant implications of projected changes will affect cross-cutting sectors that support livelihoods (i.e., economy, infrastructure, health, agriculture, and energy). In response to the anticipated changes, the following proposed mitigation measures may be undertaken to avoid loss of lives and societal infrastructure:
Firstly, an increase in land vegetation cover is of great importance. With anticipated heavy rains, cases of increase in surface overflows such as fluid erosion, agricultural fertilizers, pesticides, and animal waste into surface water resources will ultimately affect stream and ecosystem health. Enhancing tree coverage and other measures that are likely to retain soil will help in reducing such impacts. Secondly, plans to create new settlements schemes may be convinced to avoid more loss of lives. This is due to the expected surge in the frequency of landslides due to earth mass movements, especially in the hilly areas, which could eventually affect dam and river banks. Thirdly, plans may be put in place to create new opportunities for research centers to find suitable crops grown in new land areas to enhance food security. This is because climate change is going to create a shift in farming systems. Regions that are predominantly arid and semi-arid (ASALs) will likely experience an increase in rainfall, thereby creating new opportunities for agricultural activities. The impact of climate change on infrastructures such as lost resilience of buildings, roads, and other artifacts owing to increase in temperature and precipitation will call for new innovative approaches in engineering to find suitable materials that can withstand high temperatures and more rainfall as compared to the traditional raw materials used over the last century. The health risk associated with climate change will vary according to age and gender. Anticipated climate-related health risks will either directly or indirectly, such as those that depend on climatic conditions (Malaria, diarrhea, and cholera). This will call for more resources to be allocated to the health sector to research and improve awareness campaigns on the possible adaptation measures.
The increase in drought severity towards the end of the century calls for far-reaching measures to ensure appropriate coping mechanisms are put in place. For instance, the hotspots region around northeastern Kenya will affect the community that is already reeling from the ASAL environment’s unbearable conditions. With projected changes of intense increase in aridity conditions, support systems of community livelihoods will be affected. Thus, government departments such as disaster risk management may find how best to introduce relevant measures to avoid more catastrophic impacts.